Choose one art piece , and a theory that can be related to that art Essay

Journalist and Pr Relationship Free Essays

1. The inquiry for the article is â€Å"Journalism and Public Relations: Symbiosis or Parasitosis? † Journalists and Public Relations (PR) professionals associate with one another ordinarily as a major aspect of the procedure of news creation. Columnists convey towards advertising professionals with demands for data or material to help produce the accounts they are composing. We will compose a custom paper test on Writer and Pr Relationship or on the other hand any comparative point just for you Request Now While advertising specialists prompt stories and convey writers with data they have made themselves in would like to be distributed in the paper. The connection among writers and advertising experts is, and has consistently been, confused. The connection between these two is one of commonly reliance if not cooperative, yet additionally irresolute if not antagonistic. This questionable relationship has emerged because of the misinterpretation of the standpoint and the estimations of every calling. Shin and Cameron (2004) esteem the two gatherings carry strife to the relationship through the idea of their jobs and objectives, and the qualities, perspectives and perspectives they hold of one another (Callard, 2011). Columnist recognition on advertising specialists has a negative undertone to it, frequently pained by the regularly about the degrees of ‘information subsidy’ (Gandy, 1982) with regards to the manner by which advertising material can shape the news by giving data that empowers them to comply with there own motivation. While advertising are worried about the misconstrued point of view columnists have upon the job that advertising play. (Charron, 1989) Journalists are said to take a stab at objectivity, decency, exactness, and balance, and don't retain data, cover up or advocate for specific motivation, or act dishonestly (Belz, Talbot, Starck, 1989). Advertising is viewed as increasingly abstract, serving the interests of the customer first and foremost’ (White Hobsbawm, 2007) Although the pressures between the to ventures might be stressed, this is a relationship dependent on need n request for one another to succeed, regardless of whether every one of them will l et it out. . Despite the fact that they may have contrasts, the two callings have the comparative targets made around there open. The primary aim of news coverage calling is to give it open exact, solid reliable data to the overall population. Advertising objective is to impact a specific objective open, proposed to impact the assessment of this crowd to advance an individual or association that the firm is caring for. The ‘adversarial relationship’ between the two callings is regularly seen as writers being the watchmen who serve people in general through contribution them ‘a window to the world’ (Singer, 1998) and advertising experts subsequentâ the ‘press-agentry’ model (Grunig and Hunt 1984) where the reason for the specialist is to grow exposure for their specific association through controlled ‘information dissemination’. In any case, in an ever-contending world the tables have started to turn, with columnist not being as unadulterated as they describe. Columnists have an obligation to an implicit moral code to deliver accounts of truth and unwavering quality, as writers are the source between general society and it information on news data. Foxification just as the updates on the world outrage has altered the view of trust commendable reporting. Foxification was the distortions of realities to the general population by the fox arrange with the end goal of propagation their preferential preservationist plan and benefit gain. Which was a similar found with the updates on the world outrage early a year ago, where exploitative lead so as to pick up benefit. So the establishment of anxious that reporting has on advertising gets unjustified. The focal components to the working among journalist’s and advertising relationship is the subject of access to data. In a period where news is created and expended as quick as could be expected under the circumstances, the Internet has furnished media with another stage to serve its publics with the most state-of-the-art news. In any case, clearly this no longer implies that columnists have he day to compose a story for the following day’s paper, writer are taking a gander at creating anyplace between 6-10 stories each time they enter the newsroom. 3. In March 2010 10 printed copy news papers where analyised on Australia news and editorial site Crikey and the Independent news coverage which reasoned that almost 55% of the narratives find were driven by a ty pe of advertising impact. The necessity of writers accomplishing more with less has safeguarded the connection between the two callings is safely bound together encouraging a reliance on PR experts and their advertising materials. It is this interest set upon every calling, which has fabricated what we presently know as ‘churnalism’ the act of writers beating through public statements to produce news content as brisk as conceivable the peruser. Writers are being approached to accomplish more with less assets . . . compelling them to depend increasingly more on data from advertising experts . . . they are being constrained progressively into receptive, uninvolved positions as opposed to seeking after their own examinations. (Gower, 2007, p. 2-3) Churnalism. om welcomes individuals to glue official statements on to the webpage and contrast the duplicate and in excess of 3,000,000 articles distributed by national paper sites, the BBC or Sky News since 2008. The site at that point offers a rate score showing the amount of the discharge was reordered by writers. One of the authors of the Churnalism site Chris Atkins created a phony official statement about a â€Å"chastity garter† containing a s mall scale chip which would send an instant message to the woman’s accomplice conveying of the accomplice was going to be unfaithful, to show how powerful advertising push on the substance of writers stories. The story turned into the most perused story on the Daily Mail’s site for that specific day. What's more, was then rehashed by numerous news sources including that of a USA morning TV program. This model simply feature the degree to how much columnist depend on the substance that advertising experts have furnished them with so as to create stories. In any case, this additionally positioned a moral obligation upon advertising to deliver press 4. discharges, which are honest as advertising specialists depend on columnist to utilize these to advance their association. On account of both advertising and news coverage the related thoughts of trust and truth are fundamental to their expert exercises. The significance in making a solid reliable connection with writer significantly increasingly critical to advertising experts as this is their fundamental wellspring of contact with their objective publics. Advertising organizations expect to manufacture a progressing associations with writers as the better connections they can construct, the more impact they can apply on the media. A writer is bound to focus on a public statement that’s auspicious, from a known source and focused to the particular journalist’s need. So it is an advertising professional occupation to ensure they know and comprehend the style and looked for stories every writer would give an account of, making it almost certain for their public statement to be gotten. Making it pivotal to safeguard that the official statements are useful and honest. Advertising experts will offer columnists media units, up close and personal gathering and welcome them to private snacks and dispatches increasing a select scoop to make a generosity connection between the two gatherings. Be that as it may, as advertising is the essential contact among associations and the media, advertising individuals can control the entrance to data given to columnist, empowering them huge lead path in haggling with writers. It’s a touch of you take care of me I will take care of you type on association. In today’s world, advertising and columnists go connected at the hip. Columnists and advertising specialists assume particular jobs in their individual callings. On an entire advertising and news-casting cooperate so as to accomplish a similar extreme objective. Approaches might be diverse however the two callings are commonly needy upon each other and just as one of harmonious. So as to push ahead with media inclusion, both news coverage and advertising need become habituate to the presents of every calling as by tolerating what each gathering brings to the table permits the two businesses to excel. Step by step instructions to refer to Journalist and Pr Relationship, Papers Columnist and Pr Relationship Free Essays 1. The inquiry for the article is â€Å"Journalism and Public Relations: Symbiosis or Parasitosis? † Journalists and Public Relations (PR) specialists interface with one another ordinarily as a feature of the procedure of news creation. Columnists impart towards advertising experts with demands for data or material to help produce the narratives they are composing. We will compose a custom exposition test on Columnist and Pr Relationship or on the other hand any comparative subject just for you Request Now While advertising specialists exhort stories and convey writers with data they have made themselves in would like to be distributed in the paper. The connection among writers and advertising professionals is, and has consistently been, confused. The connection between these two is one of commonly reliance if not cooperative, yet in addition conflicted if not unfriendly. This uncertain relationship has emerged because of the misinterpretation of the standpoint and the estimations of ea

Community Service Essay Samples - What You Should Know

Community Service Essay Samples - What You Should KnowThere are many types of communities service essays samples that you can choose from. These types of samples have many different choices of topics, but the goal is the same. They are designed to help the student become familiar with the area and learn about the issues surrounding it. These types of samples are helpful because they will help you understand more about your topic.Community service essay samples will usually include a list of examples to use as your sample. Many times this list will have various types of examples that relate to the type of issues that the student will be writing about. The focus of the essay may be the environment, the environmental concerns, or the charities that are helping to resolve the issues. There may be examples of the different areas to look at to see if there are any local groups in each. This is a great idea because it helps students learn more about their topic by learning about the differe nt places that are dealing with the problems.In some cases, the sample includes brief summaries of some of the important issues that are dealing with the area. This is very helpful to the student as well. It helps them to understand the issues in a broader view to help make them more familiar with the area.When the community service essay samples list has enough examples, the student will be able to choose which example to use. This is helpful because this gives the student an idea on how many examples they will need to use for the essay. This may even include some ideas of where the sample should be placed in the text. This way, the student will be able to make an appropriate placement based on what they will be using the examples for.Other times, community service essay samples will include actual work that is being done by the different groups. This helps students understand the area and what is going on in the area. This is an excellent idea because it makes the students feel li ke they are actively involved in the community.Other community service essay samples include lists of great books, newspapers, and magazines to use. These types of examples are very useful because it gives students the opportunity to compare and contrast the environment that they are living in. It helps them to be more familiar with the topic and the culture that they are living in.The essay should be submitted to the college or university that you are applying to, as soon as possible after completing the service essay samples. This will help you have a professional essay, which is one of the most important aspects of your application. If you submit your essay without your samples included, this could hurt your chances of acceptance into the college or university that you are applying to.You will find that these community service essay samples are very useful to help you with your essay. They give you the best chance of being accepted into a college or university, which is why you s hould consider including them in your application.

Wolff-Parkinson White Syndrome Essay - 869 Words

Wolff-Parkinson White Syndrome Wolff-Parkinson White syndrome is a heart condition where there is an extra electrical pathway or circuit in the heart. The condition can lead to episodes of rapid heart also known as tachycardia. Wolff-Parkinson White syndrome, also known as WPW, is present at birth. People of all ages, even infants, can experience the symptoms related to WPW. Episodes of tachycardia often occur when people are in their teens or early twenties. Most of the time, a fast heart beat are not life threatening, but serious heart problems can occur. Treatments for Wolff-Parkinson White syndrome can stop or prevent episodes of fast heart beats. A catheter-based procedure, known as ablation can permanently correct the heart†¦show more content†¦Ã¢â‚¬Å"Wolf-Parkinson-White syndrome is associated with some forms of congenital heart disease, such as Ebsteins anomaly.† (Mayo Clinic Staff). The heart is made up of four chambers. The two upper chambers known as the at ria, and the two lower chambers known as the ventricles. The rhythm of your heart is controlled by the sinus node. The sinus node is almost like a natural pacemaker which is located in the atrium. The sinus node gives off electrical impulses that start every heartbeat. â€Å"Electrical impulses travel across the atria causing the atria muscles to contract and pump blood in the ventricles.† (Mayo Clinic Staff). The electrical impulses eventually arrive at a cluster of cells known as the atrioventricular node or the AV node. The AV node slows down the signal before sending it to the ventricles. By this delay, it allows the ventricles to fill with blood causing the electrical impulses to reach the muscles of the ventricles so they can contract and pump blood to the lungs and the rest of the body. When a person has WPW syndrome an extra electrical pathway connects the atria and the ventricles. This means that an electrical signal can bypass the AV node. When the impulses use this alternative route through the heart, the ventricles are activated to early. Looped electrical impulses and disorganized electrical impulses are two major types of rhythm disturbances. A looped electrical impulse is when electricalShow MoreRelatedHistory Of Present Illness : 34 Year Old Woman With A History Of Wolff Parkinson White Syndrome3858 Words   |  16 PagesHistory of present illness: 34-year-old woman with a history of Wolff Parkinson White Syndrome complains of intermittent palpitations since 2005. She has had a 24-hour Holter, which was unremarkable. She came in for a follow-up visit and had an EKG done that revealed the presence of pre-excitation. The patient reports a daily sensation of palpitations that lasts for several minutes. The patient reports lightheadedness with the palpitations without syncope. The patient underwent an exercise treadmillRead MoreFamily Health Assessment1678 Words   |  7 Pagesasking three opened ended questions based on each of Gordonâ₠¬â„¢s 11 functional health patterns. Overall, the Mohr family would describe themselves to be in good health. The only health concern is the mother’s diagnosis of hypertension and Wolff-Parkinson-White Syndrome, also known as WPW. WPW is a heart condition in which there is an extra electrical pathway between the upper and lower chambers of the heart causing a rapid heartbeat (Mayo Clinic, 2014). Her health concerns are currently well controlledRead MoreWhat s Internal Electrical System Controls The Rate And Rhythm Of Each Heartbeat1130 Words   |  5 Pagesdiagnosed. Following Waller and Einthoven, James Mackenzie and Arthur Cushny became the first cardiologists to diagnose atrial fibrillation and Drs. Wolf, Parkinson and White was recognized to first theorize the neurocardiac function of the heart. In fact, one common type of arrhythmia, Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome, named after Drs. Wolf, Parkinson and White is detonated by an extra electrical pathway between the atria and the ventricles. Another major disco very in the 1960s, the idea of combining programmedRead MoreAwareness Of Sudden Cardiac Death In Youth Athletes.. ​Coresa1451 Words   |  6 Pageswith subsequent fibro-fatty replacement. †¢ Marfan Syndrome is an autosomal dominate genetic disease characterized by the progressive dilation of the aortic root or descending aorta, which can cause dissection and rupture of the aorta. Patients with Marfan syndrome present with skeletal abnormalities such as an arm span-height ratio 1.05, hyperextensibility and ligamentous laxity, scoliosis, and chest wall deformities. The prevalence of Marfan syndrome is about 1 in 5000-7000 people. †¢ Myocarditis isRead MoreApplication Of A Mechanical Wave Sound1396 Words   |  6 Pagesand thus causing the fatal arrhythmias or even a decrease in the cardiac performance. The abnormal conduction pathways are useful in conducting electric activity to the ventricular muscle from the atrial muscle thereby occasioning the Wolff-Parkinson-White or syndrome. In magnetocardiography, doctors work to introduce an alternative to the electric localization with the help of magnetic methods whereby mapping of the cardiac magnetic field x-component is done on the anterior surface of the thorax withRead MoreDescription Of An Electrocardiogram, Or Ecg Or Ekg1686 Words   |  7 Pagesof the ventricles and the beginning of the SA node signaling the atria to contract. Abnormalities in the cardiac rhythms may result from the SA mode increasing or decreasing which would indicate sinus tachycardia or sinus bradycardia. Wolff Parkinson- White Syndrome may occur if the conduction in the cardiac cycle is too fast, or if it is too slow. The purpose of our lab was to distinguish how the heart rate and cardiac cycle would change on a person from before they performed exercise (resting)Read MoreWhat Signs And Symptoms Support Your Suspicions?1803 Words   |  8 Pagespatients with decreased hepatic function or diminished hepatic blood flow, (Older-adult patients; patients with cirrhosis, shock, or HF) to reduce toxicity. Furthermore, lidocaine is also contraindicated for patients with Strokes-Adams syndrome, Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome, and severe degrees of SA, AV, or intraventricular block in the absence of electronic pacing. Moreover, one should be cautious when using lidocaine in patients with hepatic dysfunction or impaired hepatic blood flow. Also, note thatRead MoreAtrial Fibrillation: Causes, Pathophysiology and Treatment1498 Words   |  6 Pagesvalve disease6. AF is associated with cardiovascular causes and non-cardiac causes. Cardiovascular causes include hypertension, coronary heart disease, cardiomyop athy, mitral valve disease, cardiac surgery, myocarditis, pericarditis and Wolff Parkinson-White syndrome. Non-cardiac causes include alcohol, hyperthyroidism, pulmonary disorders, pulmonary embolism, obstructive sleep apnea, thoracic surgery, obesity and sepsis. The mechanisms by which risk factors such as age, cardiac disease and hypertensionRead MoreAtrial Fibrillation with No Structural Heart Disease Should Always Undergo Catheter Ablation2234 Words   |  9 Pageselectrophysiological mechanism. Atrial fibrillation initiates in an ectopic focus that triggers and/or perpetuates the arrhythmia in patients without structural heart disease and in the absence of known conditions (alcohol abuse, hyperthyroidism, Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome, etc.). These foci are located in the pulmonary veins walls, in muscular bands extending from the left atrium into the venous walls. The histological examination has shown the presence of Purkinje cells which might generate abnormal automatismRead MoreEssay on Pulmonary Diseases4115 Words   |  17 Pagesmembrane. This procedure is done to treat the fluid buildup around the lung. There are other slerosing agents available, but talc seems to be the most effective and cost efficient in spite of uncommon co mplications of ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome) after using talc (Bascom, Benninghoff, and Alam, 2009). Local anesthetics used to numb the sensation are used for thoracentesis and placement of a chest tube. Medications include lidocaine hydrochloride (Dilocaine, Xylocaine, and Anestacon) and

Physical Punishment Essay - 482 Words

nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;Gallegos,et all 1 Physical Punishment nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;Physical punishment has been a problem in hitting their children so they can have discipline or not hitting them because it is not right, so what can parents do and what can they not do? Should the parents hit them to learn discipline, or should they not hit them and figure out another way to make them learn what discipline is? nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;Because many parents do not know or are confused in showing their children how†¦show more content†¦nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;There are other alternatives to punishing the children for their bad behavior. Less severe punishments besides spanking. First, they can take away their television privileges, computer use, and playing outside with their friends. Next, they could ground Gallegos, 2 them for the weekend and cancel plans. Last of all parents could take the time to sit and talk to their children about their bad behavior. nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;Physical punishment may cause a child psychological problems. First, if the physical punishment starts at an early age the child will be used to being physically punished, therefore, his or hers self-esteem may severely negative as he or she grows up. Second, it is a life-affecting act to physically punish a child because they will be traumatized. Eventually parents should think twice before they can physically punish their children. What they should think of is what problems they are causing the child in its life. nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;In conclusion every parent must take consideration that the negative affects that spanking may cause a child. Spanking your children may make massive changes in your child’s personality. He or she may grow up to believe that violence is acceptable in everyday life. And thus this will be a never-ending cycle because they will think it is okay because their parents did it. If a child grows up to believe this negative behavior, theyShow MoreRelatedCorporal Punishment or Physical Chastisement963 Words   |  4 PagesCorporal punishment or known as the physical chastisement of someone who has disobeyed or gone against their right to do something. At one extreme it may include the death penalty, but the term corporal punishment usually refers to punishments such as branding, flogging, and flagellation. Many things come to mind when thinking of the term corporal punishment but the first is slavery. What role did corporal punishment play in slavery? How did i t affect the daily lives of the slaves? Corporal punishmentRead MoreParents and Physical Punishment1052 Words   |  5 PagesAs children grow up, they’re more than likely exposed to being disciplined in one way or another. â€Å"Surveys of parents show that 90 percent have used some form of physical punishment on their children† (Graziano 1). So therefore, we can all agree that when it comes down to being punished, parents more often than not resort to spanking their child(ren). That being said, many parents will readily agree that spanking a child should not be considered a form of child abuse. However, the question stillRead MoreCorporal Punishment Is A Form Of Physical Punishment1363 Words   |  6 Pages Corporal punishment is a form of physical punishment that inflicts pain on kids for their negative actions such as spanking. This topic is controversial because some people feel very strongly that they should be allowed to continue using these methods and ot hers feel very strongly that they should not be allowed to. I feel as if this method of punishment is inhumane and should not continue to be used. The modernization of psychology has proved that hitting children will not help them learn thatRead MorePhysical Punishment and the Effects2297 Words   |  10 Pagesï » ¿Brianna Ascencio ENGWR 300 T/Th 7:30 Dr. Muà ±oz November 19, 2013 Research Paper Physical Punishment and the Effects A fearful child walks slowly, but carefully to his house from school. Walking home feels faster than usual and before he knows it, he walks into the front door as quietly as possible. He gets a sort of relief when he finds out he is home alone. Seconds later, he gets that turned feeling in his stomach again. He knows he awaits for the worst. What he has done wasn’t so badRead MoreThe Effects Of Physical Punishment On Children928 Words   |  4 Pageschildren are punished because adults want to teach them something. The whole purpose of punishment, in the case of children, is intended to change their behavior. Adults generally think that they should do whatever it takes to get children to behave in an acceptable way. In order to get the children to behave thus, adults often punish them physically—that is, through causing pain. It is my opinion that physical punishment of children is an overreaction and can never be justified. Read More Physical Pu nishment vs. Communication Essay963 Words   |  4 PagesPhysical Punishment vs. Communication Works Cited Missing Many parents say physical punishment works on improving behavior or teaching a child a lesson. These parents think this is the only way to discipline a child. So as years pass more parents tend to use this strategy to discipline their own children. According to the Health Update, â€Å"one of four 10-16 year olds or 6.2 million children is a victim of assault or abuse every year† also â€Å"one-third of the children surveyed said that they wereRead MoreAvoiding Physical Punishment In Child Rearing Essay1326 Words   |  6 PagesAvoiding Physical Punishment In Child Rearing Is sparing the rod spoiling or saving the child? Is violence, resentment, anger or fear worth the risk taken when striking him or her. Whether your for or against using physical punishment in child development, as a parent, you will someday have to face this issue. Many parents are taught this method in their childhood, and are not aware of any other way. Often originating from religion, physical or corporal punishment is seen as an importantRead MoreCorporal Punishment Is Defined As The Utilization Of Physical Force1459 Words   |  6 PagesThe term corporal punishment is defined as the utilization of physical force with the intention of causing a child to experience pain, yet not harm, for the purpose of correction or control of the child’s behavior. Seven nations Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway, Austria, Italy and Cyprus-have laws making it illicit for parents to utilize physical discipline on their children. Corporal punishment in schools has been banned in every one of the nations in Europe, South and Central America, China andRead MorePhysical Punishment Has Been Around For Decades. However,1822 Words   |  8 PagesPhysical punishment has been around for decades. However, many falsely believe that the use of this parenting style has slowly faded away. Unfortunately, it has become more common and ranges from minor to severe depending on the parent. This method of correction has been passed down through generations and the history of it is a major contribution to the problem. Just because it happens does not mean it is acceptable. The desired results are rarely achieved and the children are negatively impactedRead MoreThe Effects Of Race And Childhood Corporal Punishment On Physical Aggression Towards Future Generations Of Children1205 Words   |  5 Pageseffects of race and childhood corporal punishment on physical aggression towards future generations of children Mallika Sharma New York University There has been a significant amount of research on the impact of corporal punishment on children, and its effect on their behavior going into adolescence. Several studies have shown that experiencing physical discipline during childhood leads to higher acts of aggression towards others, that physical punishment leads to externalizing these aggressive

DayDream Nation by Sonic Youth free essay sample

Sonic youths fifth studio Album Daydream Nation is possibly one of the more unique albums I have ever heard. When I first listened to the album a couple years back, I thought I was going to be listening to the soundtrack of a movie called Day Dream Nation ( I later discovered the movie and album shared the name.) So I kinda listened to it by accident, but it was a great accident because once I listened to the album all the way through I loved what I heard. I mean its one of my favorite albums. So I began listening to more of their albums. and within a few weeks time I was a fan and I have been ever since. Sonic youth Really delivers with this album. with Thurston Moores strange but satisfying Guitar playing. And Kim Gordons Spoken word singing style that draws you in almost immediately. We will write a custom essay sample on DayDream Nation by Sonic Youth or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page It makes you want to not only hear the song but listen to it as well. This Album is Timeless. Its one of those Iconic albums that will stick around for a long while. Other than bizarre guitar playing and singing styles, This album has the kind of songs, with the kind of lyrics that stay with you. An example of this would be the albums single Teen Age Riot I mean, This song is Seven minutes of lyric gold. It makes you think. It makes you want to listen to more of their songs.It makes you want to know the story behind the song. To me thats just brilliant. All and all, this is just an amazing, creative and smart album from a band that has inspired so many other great bands like Nirvana and Yeah Yeah Yeahs and countless other bands and artist. Sonic Youth just really outdid themselves when they produced Daydream Nation. fourteen years after its release In 1988, Pitchfork Media ranked it number 1 on their list of The one-hundred greatest albums of the 1980s. It has been able to remain relevant after all these years. And I believe it will continue too inspire artist for many years to come.

Sales Forecasting free essay sample

Usage can differ between areas of application: for example, in hydrology, the terms forecast and forecasting are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term prediction is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty attaching to forecasts. In any case, the data must be up to date in order for the forecast to be as accurate as possible. Although quantitative analysis can be very precise, it is not always appropriate. Some experts in the field of forecasting have advised against the use of mean square error to compare forecasting methods. Forecasting involves the use of information at hand to make statements about the likely course of future events. In technical terms, conditional on what one knows, what can one say about the future? Forecasting techniques include uni-variant, multi-variant, and qualitative analysis. We will write a custom essay sample on Sales Forecasting or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page Time series used to forecast future trends include exponential smoothing, ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) and trend analysis. Multi-variant prediction methods include multi regression model, econometrics, and state space. Delphi marketing research, situational analysis, and historical analogue belong to qualitative methodologies. These forecasting methods forecast trends over different time horizons. There are significant differences in time length being considered when using these forecasting methods. Basically, uni variant methods in short-term forecasting usually generate higher accuracy than those of multi variants (Box et al. , 1994). LITERATURE REVIEW Forecasting techniques can be categorized in two broad categories: quantitative and qualitative. The techniques in the quantitative category include mathematical models such as moving average, straight-line projection, exponential smoothing, regression, trend-line analysis, simulation, life-cycle analysis, decomposition, Box-Jenkins, expert systems, and neural network. The techniques in the qualitative category include subjective or intuitive models such as jury or executive opinion, sales force composite, and customer expectations (Kress, 1985; Mentzer Kahn, 1995). Along with qualitative and quantitative, forecasting models can be categorized as time-series, causal, and judgmental. A time-series model uses past data as the basis for estimating future results. The models that fall into this category include decomposition, moving average, exponential smoothing, and Box-Jenkins. The premise of a causal model is that a particular outcome is directly influenced by some other predictable factor. These techniques include regression models. Judgmental techniques are often called subjective because they rely on intuition, opinions, and probability to derive the forecast. These techniques include expert opinion, Delphi, sales force composite, customer expectations (customer surveys), and simulation (Kress, 1985; Wilson Keating, 1994). Typically, the two forms of forecasting error measures used to judge forecasting performance are mean absolute deviation (MAD) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). For both MAD and MAPE, a lower absolute value is preferred to a higher absolute value. MAD is the difference between the actual sales and the forecast sales, absolute values are calculated over a period of time, and the mean is derived from these absolute differences. MAPE is used with large amounts of data, and forecasters may prefer to measure error in percentage (Wilson Keating, 1994). The forecasting process It is important to know when we should use qualitative or quantitative forecasting techniques. Managers apply quantitative forecasting techniques when environment is predictable and if they have data from past period about sales. These techniques are good when we want to predict existing products and technologies. They often used mathematics’ techniques for forecasting. Qualitative forecasting techniques are used in the not predictable environment and when we don’t have enough data. These techniques are usually used when managers forecast launching the new product line or new technologies. QUALITATIVE FORECASTING TECHNIQUES Qualitative forecasting techniques are sometimes referred to as judgmental of subjective techniques because they rely more upon opinion and less upon mathematics in their formulations. The absence of past sales means that you have to be more creative in coming up with prediction in the future. Sales forecast for new products are often based on executive judgments, sales force projection, surveys and user’s expectation. We summarized qualitative forecasting techniques which include: Jury of executive opinion consists of combining top executives’ views concerning future sales. This type of forecasting technique is term a ‘top down’ technique whereby a forecast is produced for the industry. Customer expectations use customer’s expectations of their needs and requirements as the basis for the forecast. The data are typically gathered by a survey of customers or by the sales force Sales force composite combines the individual forecasts of salespeople. This technique involves salesperson making a product-by-product forecast for their particular sales territory. Such a method is a bottom-up approach. Delphi method is a similar to jury of executive opinion technique. The main difference the members do not meet in committee. A project leader administers a questionnaire to each member of the team which asks questions usually of a behavioural nature. The questioning then proceeds to a more detailed second stage which asks questions about the individual company. The process go on to further stages where appropriate. The ultimate objective is to translate opinion into some form of forecast. Bayesian decision theory has been placed under techniques although it is really a mixture of subjective and objectives techniques. This technique is similar to critical path analysis in that it uses a network diagram and probability must be estimated for each event over the network. We already mention that qualitative techniques are often used when managers have little data to incorporate into forecast. New products are a classic example of limited information and qualitative techniques are frequently employed to predict sales revenues for these items. Qualitative techniques are recommended for those situations where managers or sales force are particularly adept at predicting sales revenues. These techniques are often utilized when markets have been disturbed by strikes, wars, natural disasters, recessions or inflation. Under these conditions historical data are useless and judgmental procedures that account for the factors causing market stocks are usually more accurate. Regression Analysis: statically relates sales to one or more explanatory (independent) variables. Explanatory variables may be marketing decisions (price changes, for instance), competitive information, economic data, or any other variable related to sales. †¢ Exponential smoothing makes an exponentially smoothed weighted average of past sales, trends, and seasonality to derive a forecast. †¢ Moving aver age takes an average of a specified number of past observations to make a forecast. As new observations become available, they are used in the forecast and the oldest observations are dropped. Box-Jenkins uses the auto correlative structure of sales data to develop an autoregressive moving average forecast from past sales and forecast errors. †¢ Trend line analysis fits a line to the sales data by minimizing the squared error between the line and actual past sales values. This line is then projected into the future as the forecast. †¢ Decomposition breaks the sales data into seasonal, cyclical, trend and noise components and projects each into the future. †¢ Straight-line projection is a visual extrapolation of the past data, which is projected into the future as the forecast. Life-cycle analysis bases the forecast upon whether the product is judged to be in the introduction, growth, maturity, or decline stage of the life cycle. †¢ Simulation uses the computer to model the forces, which affect sales: customers, marketing plans, competitors, flow of goods, etc. The simulation model is a mathematical replication of the actual corporation. †¢ Expert systems use the knowledge of one or more forecasting experts to develop decision rules to arrive at a forecast. †¢ Neural networks look for patterns in previous history of sales and explanatory data to uncover relationships. These relationships are used to produce the forecast. QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES Quantitative techniques are sometimes termed objective or mathematical techniques as they rely more upon mathematics as less upon judgment in their computation. These techniques are now very popular as a result of sophisticated computer packages. There are many quantitative techniques: Regression analysis statistically relates sales to one or more explanatory (independent) variables. Explanatory variables may be marketing decisions (price changes, for instance), competitive information, economic data on any other variable that can be related to sales. Exponential smoothing makes an exponentially smoothed weighted average of past sales, trend and seasonality to derive the forecast Moving average takes an average of a specified number of past observations to make a forecast. As new observations become available, they are used in the forecast and the oldest observations are dropped. Box-Jenkins uses the auto correlative structure of sales data to develop autoregressive moving average forecast from past sales and forecast errors Trend line Analysis fits a line to sales data by minimizing the squared error between the line and actual past sales values. The line is that projected into the future as the forecast. Decomposition breaks the sales data into seasonal, cyclical, trend and noise components and projects each into the forecast Straight-line projection is a visual extrapolation of the past data which is projected into the future as the forecast Life cycle analysis bases the forecast upon whether the product is judged to be in the introduction, growth, maturity or decline stage of its life cycle Simulation uses computer to model the forces which affect sales: customers, marketing plans, competitors, flow-of-goods, etc. The simulation model is mathematical replication of the actual corporation. Experts systems use the knowledge of one or more forecasting experts to develop decision rules to arrive at a forecast Neutral networks look for patterns in previous history of sales and explanatory data to uncover relationships. These relationships are then used to produce the forecast. †¢ Jury of executive opinion consists of combining top executives’ views concerning future sales. †¢ Sales force composite combines the individual forecasts of salespeople. †¢ Customer expectations (customer surveys) use customers expectations as the basis for the forecast. The data are typically gathered by a customer survey by the sales force. †¢ Delphi model is similar to jury of executive opinion in taking advantage of the wisdom of experts. However, it has the additional advantage of anonymity among participants. †¢ Naive model assumes that the next period will be identical to the present. The forecast is based on the most recent observation of data. Three planning horizons for forecasting exist. The short-term forecast usually covers a period of less than three months. The medium-term forecast usually covers a period of three months to two years. And, the long-term forecast usually covers a period of more than two years. Generally, the short-term forecast is used for the daily operation and plans of a company. The long-term forecast is used more for strategic planning (Kress, 1985; DeLurgio Bhame, 1991). Finally, the distinction between the forecasting method and forecasting system is important. A forecasting method is a mathematical or subjective technique that forecasts some future value or event. While many statistical forecasting software packages are implementations of forecasting methods, they are not forecasting systems. A forecasting system is a computer-based system that collects and processes demand data for thousands of items, develops forecasts using forecasting methods, has an interactive managementuser interface, maintains a database of demands, and has report file-writing capabilities. A forecasting system is much more complex than a forecasting method. The method is a part of the system (DeLurgio Bhame, 1991). Time Series Data Time Series Data is usually plotted on a graph to determine the various characteristics or components of the time series data. There are 4 Major Components: Trend, Cyclical, Seasonal, and Irregular Components Components of a Time Series The trend component accounts for the gradual shifting of the time series over a long period of time. Any regular pattern of sequences of values above and below the trend line is attributable to the cyclical component of the series. The seasonal component of the series accounts for regular patterns of variability within certain time periods, such as over a year. The irregular component of the series is caused by short-term, unanticipated and non-recurring factors that affect the values of the time series. One cannot attempt to predict its impact on the time series in advance. Moving Average Method The moving average method consists of computing an average of the most recent n data values for the series and using this average for forecasting the value of the time series for There are usu ¬ally five basic steps in any fore ¬cast ¬ing task. Step 1: Prob ¬lem definition. Often this is most dif ¬fi ¬cult part of fore ¬cast ¬ing. Defin ¬ing the prob ¬lem care ¬fully requires an under ¬stand ¬ing of how the fore ¬casts will be used, who requires the fore ¬casts, and how the fore ¬cast ¬ing func ¬tion fits within the orga ¬ni ¬za ¬tion requir ¬ing the fore ¬casts. A fore ¬caster needs to spend time talk ¬ing to every ¬one who will be involved in col ¬lect ¬ing data, main ¬tain-ing data ¬bases, and using the fore ¬casts for future planning. Step 2: Gath ¬er ¬ing information. There are always at least two kinds of infor ¬ma ¬tion required: (a) sta ¬tis ¬ti ¬cal data, and (b) the accu ¬mu ¬lated exper ¬tise of the peo ¬ple who col ¬lect the data and use the fore ¬casts. Often, a dif ¬fi ¬culty will be obtain ¬ing enough his ¬tor ¬i ¬cal data to be able to fit a good sta ¬tis ¬ti ¬cal model. How ¬ever, occa ¬sion ¬ally, very old data will not be so use ¬ful due to changes in the sys ¬tem being forecast. Step 3: Pre ¬lim ¬i ¬nary (exploratory) analysis. Always start by graph ¬ing the data. Are there con ¬sis ¬tent pat ¬terns? Is there a sig ¬nif ¬i ¬cant trend? Is sea ¬son ¬al ¬ity impor ¬tant? Is there evi ¬dence of the pres ¬ence of busi ¬ness cycles? Are there any out ¬liers in the data that need to be explained by those with expert knowl ¬edge? How strong are the rela ¬tion ¬ships among the vari ¬ables avail ¬able for analy ¬sis? Var ¬i ¬ous tools have been devel ¬oped to help with this analy ¬sis. Step 4: Choos ¬ing and fit ¬ting models. Which model to use depends on the avail ¬abil ¬ity of his ¬tor ¬i ¬cal data, the strength of rela ¬tion-ships between the fore ¬cast vari ¬able and any explana ¬tory vari ¬ables, and the way the fore-casts are to be used. It is com ¬mon to com ¬pare two or three poten ¬tial mod ¬els. Each model is itself an arti ¬fi ¬cial con ¬struct. It is based on a set of assump ¬tions (explicit and implicit) and usu ¬ally involves one or more para ¬me ¬ters which must be â€Å"fit ¬ted† using the known his-tor ¬i ¬cal data. A com ¬mon area of fore ¬cast ¬ing that deserves spe ¬cial atten ¬tion is demand fore-cast ¬ing for supply-chain man ¬age ¬ment. Step 5: Using and eval ¬u ¬at ¬ing a fore ¬cast ¬ing model. Once a model has been selected and its para ¬me ¬ters esti ¬mated, the model is used to make fore ¬casts. The per ¬for ¬mance of the model can only be prop ¬erly eval ¬u ¬ated after the data for the fore ¬cast period have become avail ¬able. A num ¬ber of meth ¬ods have been devel ¬oped to help in assess ¬ing the accu ¬racy of fore ¬casts. There are also orga ¬ni ¬za ¬tional issues in using and act ¬ing on the fore ¬casts. . CONCLUSION The forecasting process refers to a series of procedures used to forecast. It begins when an objective is determined. For example sales objectives can be (estimation of dollar sales, number of sales people to hire, etc. ). Next step is determination of dependent refer to what is being forecasting: sales or the number of sales people to hire next year) and independent variables. After this step we should determine forecast procedure and methods for analyzing data. Data are then gathered and analyzed often assumptions must be made about the forecast. The forecast is made, finalized, and, estimate passes, evaluated One of the keys to success in sales knows where are customers are located and being able to predict how much they will buy. Sales forecasting is so important that more then 50% of companies include this topic in their sales manager training programs. Inaccurate demand predictions can have disastrous effects of profitability. Managers should calculate and record the forecasting errors produced by the qualitative techniques they employ so that will know when these methods are best employed. Qualitative techniques are often used in conjunction with the quantitative techniques. Managers identified several sources to learn about sales forecasting techniques. The majority of them identified colleagues as an important source.